A big lesson that changed my trading forever was understanding that not everyday is a high probability trading day, your ability to determine this can be the difference between you being a profitable trader and an unprofitable one…

How can we distinguish the two? The answer to this questions lies in the data you have accumulated and the edge you have formed over an extended time period.

Here is how I distinguish this in a couple of bullet points:

The Higher Time Frame

Lets take a look at DXY today… here is a thread of notes I sent out to my premium members in real time.

I noted the presence of a Daily SIBI, and wanted to see if we could get some movement away from this area, I also mentioned how we would likely see volatility inside NY (Time of Day✅)

So, here I wanted to see us travel to the H4 FVG - specifically the upper blue line (Draw on liquidity✅). However, you can see I mentioned this trade doesn’t align with my cycles ❌, meaning out of the 3 conditions only 2 were met. I require all 3 conditions to be met in order for me to execute. This meant today was just a tape reading day. This is where most traders go wrong however, they think just because they’re not trading this means they cannot learn anything.

In actual fact this is the ideal day to practise your understanding of price delivery. Why is that?…

Because your emotions will be relaxed and you can focus on price with a clear head.

The Lower Time Frame

Here you can see I reinforce what I mentioned earlier. Now that we have changed the state of delivery on the M15, I want to see price navigate lower from the M5 SIBI or M15 SIBI.

After reaching for the M15 level, I want to see us displace away now, I also give an invalidation clause, this is often overlooked by newer traders.

(Should say “not” instead of “no”). You can see how we are breaking down now, respecting the M1 SIBI (note how the bodies of the candles stay inside the FVG). Now you can see I’m anticipating the formation of a breaker + displacement past the swing low marked orange.

Breaker formed nicely and displacement past the low.

Price ended up tapping the low of the breaker and then dropped swiftly to target

Bagged and tagged.

Closing Thoughts

As a profitable trader there will be countless days where you call price accurately but the trade wouldn’t have met your A+ criteria. Being able to watch these trades play out and not feel emotional/FOMO is a skill in itself…

But believe me this is where the real winners are made.